Forecast: The Perfect Electoral Storm
When future historians chronicle the presidential election of 2012, I wonder if they’ll note that that the establishment elites of both political parties did everything in their power to ensure that Mitt Romney was the GOP nominee – albeit for opposite reasons: the Democrats are certain that Romney will be the easiest to defeat, while the Republicans are equally certain that Romney is the only one of the candidates who can defeat Barack Obama in November.
So how do we know that Obama and his minions prefer a Romney candidacy? For one thing, the Drive-By Media can barely contain their glee over Romney’s eight vote victory over Rick Santorum in the Iowa Caucus on Tuesday. For another thing, the absence of any substantive media attacks on Der Mittmeister contrasts sharply with the hatchet jobs they performed on Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Rick Perry. They are presently hacking away at Newt Gingrich and the long knives are already being sharpened for Santorum.
Strange, is it not? After all, the Drive-Bys ceaselessly brayed about the unelectability of Bachmann, Cain, Perry and especially Gingrich. We were told over and over again that each of these candidates was hopelessly flawed and utterly toxic to the Republican brand. Common political sense tells us they’d focus on the most vulnerable of the bunch and do everything they could to ensure his or her nomination, thereby scaring away the so-called “Independents” and clearing the way for an easy Obama victory in November. And yet…precisely the opposite has taken place: one by one the “toxic” candidates have been pummeled out of the race, leaving Mitt Romney – the man we are told is most likely to defeat Obama – relatively unscathed, his perfectly coiffed hair still intact.
But why Romney? To be sure, the Republican Establishment is supremely confident that Mitt has what it takes to trounce President Man-Child: his record of accomplishment and job creation in the private sector is stellar; his stint as a Republican governor of a dark Blue State demonstrates his ability to adapt to a hostile political environment; his moderate to right-of-center positions on the burning issues of the day point to the least possible risk of alienating the crucial Independent demographic. Whereas Obama can very easily be typecast as a clueless and hopelessly inexperienced Left-wing ideologue whose agenda threatens to push this nation over the edge into the abyss of economic and political chaos, Mitt Romney is the adult voice of reason that will make everything better without upsetting anyone’s apple cart. Handsome, articulate and as smooth as polished glass, he certainly appears to be the one candidate who can bury Obama in a landslide.
Or is he?
Carl Von Clausewitz famously observed that war is the continuation of politics by other means, where the goal is not so much to destroy the enemy on the battlefield, but rather to break his spirit and destroy his morale, compelling him to surrender. At the risk of employing a tautology, I submit that politics is the continuation of war by other means in which the desideratum is not so much to destroy one’s opponents but instead to so dispirit and demoralize them that enough of them stay home on election day to ensure victory. And what better way to facilitate this possibility then by engineering the nomination of a candidate who is deeply mistrusted by the conservative base of the GOP and, for the past eight years, hasn’t been able to nudge his intraparty poll numbers above 30%?
I’ll cut to the chase and move us forward into what I call the Perfect Electoral Storm: there is no question in my mind that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for president.
This depresses me because Rick Santorum, Rick Perry or even Newt Gingrich would handily defeat Obama this November – and I’m content to support either. These candidates scare the living hell out of the Democrats and for a very good reason: Santorum, Perry and Gingrich rose from relatively humble origins and have little or no connection to the millionaires and billionaires of Wall Street and Big Business; none of them fits the role of CEO villain in Obama’s class warfare campaign template and the nomination of any would force Team Obama to scrap its current strategy in favor of one unrelated to the class warfare meme (there isn’t enough red meat to inspire and motivate Obama’s base).
The new tactical approach would have to rely upon character assassination. However, the barrage of negativity would serve only to unify the conservative base, strengthening their determination to close ranks and fight even harder for their candidate – and it’s a sure bet that Rick Santorum, Rick Perry – and definitely Newt Gingrich – would take off the gloves and bring the fight to Obama’s doorstep, further energizing the party base and likely emerging victorious with a comfortable margin on election day – and all this in spite of the advantages enjoyed by the incumbent, including: a nearly $1 billion campaign war chest; the lickspittle adulation of the Mainstream Media and the Hollywood Elite; the unquestioning fealty of the public sector unions; massive vote fraud thanks to the sub-rosa assistance of Democrat Party operatives, the ever-useful (if tattered, dog-eared and way-overplayed) race card and last, but certainly not least, an electorate that Rush Limbaugh describes as not well informed but “massively emotionally shaped.” Like it or not, he’s absolutely correct when he observes that when it comes to elections, “…even the ignorant can make a difference and when they do, it ain’t good.“
Unfortunately, Perry will likely drop out of the race after the South Carolina primary (this just isn’t his year). Neither Rick Santorum nor Newt Gingrich will be the nominee: that honor will go to Mitt Romney and while it may appear early on that Romney is the candidate, the RNC would do well to keep the nominating process active for as long as possible – even up to the convention. This would keep Team Obama from commencing Operation Destroy Mittens, as the last thing they want is to launch a campaign custom-tailored to take down Romney only to have the Republicans nominate someone else.
On the other hand, the GOP isn’t called “The Stupid Party” for nothing and it’s a surefire guarantee their confidence in Romney’s ability to trounce Obama will impel them to confirm him as the nominee as soon as possible – perhaps even immediately after the Florida primary – thereby giving Team Obama roughly nine months in which to convince a bare majority of the electorate that Romney is the avatar of those responsible for the mess we’re in and that he, Barack Hussein Obama, is the only one who can save America.
But not to worry: on Wednesday Mitt Romney was enthusiastically endorsed by John McCain – the Alpha RINO trounced by Obama in 2008. Feel better now?
To be continued in Part 6
